I have been refraining from commenting on the shitshow on the Pontic Steppes. The reason is simple. No one is telling the truth. Now, you might think that this statement is delivered with an air of high dudgeon, but nothing can be farther from the truth. Telling the truth is just not done in a wartime setting. People who think that they “know” the “truth” in today’s social, political, and military realms are just plain fucking stupid or are selling something.
Oh granted, there is a plethora of folks out there on either side who claim to have ferreted out the “truth” and who are willing to write about it (for a fee of course), but truthfully, I think that the best that can be said about these self-proclaimed “prophets” is that they might, just might, be one step closer to an understanding of the situation than I am. But seeing as I am several removes (I am guessing my information is no better than four derivatives from what is really happening) from an accurate account, reading an account that is only marginally closer (minus one remove) to the actual truth is at best, dicey.
So, I am proceeding with this piece, but I am also offering the following Caveat Emptor to whoever displays the poor time management skills required to read this screed. This is a best guess analysis. I have no privileged sources feeding me uncorrupted data. I read folks who seem (to me) to know what they are talking about. But I have no means of verifying information that I use .
Now, let’s talk about verification. Some folks seem to think that if they read an article online, then read another article that agrees with the first article, that constitutes verification. Nope…..sorry…..thanks for playing our game and try again soon.
The hard part is trying to figure out which of the two primary conflicting narratives going on is actually closer to the actual state of affairs in a war going on halfway around the world. If you are reading only one specific news source and are relying on that news source to give you an accurate appraisal of the true state of affairs, then I have a strong hunch that you will be disappointed at the end of the conflict.
I try hard to make certain that I at least listen to both sides, but that is getting harder to do. Both sides are ramping up their propaganda organs to full bore and are pushing hard to disseminate a version of the ground truth that suits their narrative more than it reflects a complete and accurate picture of actual events.
I think that the war will be around for a while. I think that the US and NATO have no problem running the war for a while to test out weapons and tactics using Ukrainian labor. I think that the Russians will just sit and let the Ukrainians come at them in poorly supplied and poorly planned attacks and just attrit the hell out of the poor bastards.
In the state that the world was in before 2021, the population of Ukraine was around 43.5 million. It is around 36.7 million now. In my world that pencils out at around a 16% population loss. Now, a lot of that is folks cutting and running to Western Europe. Smart move, but I would love to see how many well-off men of military age made that run. From what I have been hearing is that Ukrainian conscription is now between 16 and 55 and they are having trouble feeding the blood pump.
Russia has a population of around 135 million, nearly four times the size of Ukraine. They can afford to lose some kids. But the truth of the matter seems to be that the casualty ratio thus far is around 3½:1 in favor of the Russians. I came to this number by taking the numbers from both sides (Ukies say 1:1, Russians say 7:1), with the larger population and the lower casualty rate, that simply means that the Russians don’t have to hurry.
So, with all the non-verified bases covered above, I tend to think that the Russians will spend quite a chunk of time beating the Ukrainians about the head and shoulders. They will continue their inchwise assaults and push forward to the East bank of the Dniepro River (give or take, probably give a buffer around Kiev on the East Side of the river and will carve out a lane to Transnistria to leave the rump of Ukraine landlocked).
I figure that since the Russians have no real need to hurry, they will just spend a bunch of time blooding their troops and setting up a completely veteran army to deal with the possibility that NATO might see itself as a peer to the Russian military and continue on their current stupid path.
Pay attention, Vietnam was decades, Afghanistan was decades (us and the Russians), Iraq has been decades. Syria has been a decade. Wars take time. We here in ‘Murca want things done now so that we can move on to the next short-term obsession. Wars don’t work like that.
I don’t have a dog in this fight. I don’t believe that the American idea of how self-determination works is in any way close to the mark. In my mind, we are in the same position as Great Britain in our own civil war back a while ago. A mercantilist power who is trying to maintain control of resources in an area where there is an opportunity to create/exacerbate divisions for whatever reason. In our civil war it was Britain trying to keep afloat their investments in American cotton. In the Ukraine it is American hedge funds buying up Ukrainian land and trying to control Russian gas flows across Ukraine.
So now we approach the chance of this war going big time more closely each month. We are barely one year into the conflict. The original plan, based on astonishingly incorrect estimates of relative power, has fallen apart. Don’t let the press and the administration tell you otherwise, Plan A did not work.
So what I see is another three or four years of flailing around. The West needs to come up with Plan B, the Rooskies need to build up and get their war industries running smoothly and finish integrating their economies with China and India.
Work needs to be done on both sides.
And don’t worry about it too much, the only people paying the price are the Ukrainians.