I Since I am actually writing this on the morning of New Years Eve, just rest assured that there will be none of that nonsense about staying up to greet the new year. At my age, New Years are not especially welcome, I have seen to many of them to get excited about what shit it is they come a' bearing.
The projections below are lovingly handcrafted on the 31st of December, 2773 AUC and the 1st of January 2020 CE
When I finish here, gonna eat a gummi and clean the place. That to me seems like a good way to spend New Years day.
Prediction #1The Douchebag ReturnsTrumpy is going to win again. I give this an 80% chance. The guy is a douche, but man o' man, he is one resilient motherfucker. Stands in there and punches back. Kinda pisses the Dem's off that he just doesn't bow his head in shame and walk away. What they don't seem to understand is that he doesn't see himself as the unmitigated evil that the portray him as. Truth be told, I don't think a majority of the country see him that way either.
Chances = 80% Donnykins get re-electedPrediction #2Big Problems in Big China. Look, we got problems here in the US...never, ever doubt that. But China has it worse than we do and I think that their cobbled together corruption will fall apart before our highly polished and researched corruption does. China's economy going shithouse will lead to hot money returning to the US, which in turn might buy us some time before ours follows suit.
Chances = 68% that the Chinese learn regret.Prediction #3The Fed discovers Gresham's LawEveryone bitches about the state of the American Consumer's debt. Well buckaroos, I am thinking that 2020 is the year that someone notices that the Fed/Congressional money printing scheme is every bit as bad. I am thinking that the Repo market, which has been jankey as hell lately is going to shit itself to some degree in the coming year.
Chances = 75% that the bond market takes a shit.
As a brief aside, these three things are the things that worry me the most. Whether you like it or not, these three represent the biggest problems facing us here on the North American Continent. They are hopelessly interconnected and they will all feed off of each other. As such, if they manage to hang on through the year without happening, no one will be happier than your humble correspondent. I like my fat, drunk, and stupid life. The current setup allows this, I can't really say that the options presented in lieu of this system will allow me the lethargy and sloth that I have so come to cherish.
Prediction #4
The Media loses it even moreThe media has become an arm of the entertainment industry, and as such, it's opinions have taken on the aspects of a whore's game. Part of this is a nostalgia for the old days of Edward R. Murrow, Walter Cronkite, and Huntley/Brinkley. Names that effectively have no meaning anymore. Media has been losing it for a generation now. The industrialization of the process by big money and the techniques of Hollywood and the vagaries of the "digital revolution" leave it adrift and making no rational decisions.
This year will be the turning point, Maddow's open confession in court documents that what she does isn't reliant by the constraint of being a "fact". Nope downhill from here.
Chances = Can't really stick a hard and fast number on this one. Because I most certainly won't trust anything coming out of the media to prove my point one way of the other. Which leads us the the next:Prediction #5Education turns the cornerI am betting a well papered-over decrease in education. Now, I don't think that will address the mess that is the K-12 system, I think that the pseudo-crisis will hit the job-training and credentials racket that what is euphemistically referred to as "Higher Education". Noises have been made lately about free tuition and the like. I am getting the sense that is more a promise to the education industry that their jobs are secure than any idea that the stunted and for-purpose nature of the current system will be maintained and the quite lucrative lifetime tenure jobs will be maintained.
Regardless, I see the very tip of the problem surfacing this year. I am thinking that the "for-profit" schools preying on the desperate and gullible will be the first to go belly up.
Chances = I think that there will be between five and ten of the lower tier diploma mills to go under, with a whole bunch more of them in pretty dire straits by the end of the year.
Prediction #6
Fracking squeaks out one more yearI don't see the fracking industry shitting itself this year. Now, I find this impressive. The whole edifice is probably the most Rube Goldbergesque, kludged together piece of desperation for the past two centuries. Hell even the German effort at coal gasification the end of WWII made more sense.
I think that the Fed will be the key here. The fracking industry runs on the simple concept of burning money to extract fuels for the engines of our society. If the Fed manages to keep the 25% chance of keeping stuff glued together, 2020 will look pretty good from this perspective. If the Fed pukes, then 2020 will look a lot like 2019 with a lot less hope for 2021.
Chances = 65% that we are pretty close to where we are now.Prediction #7
Fusion Pukes AgainI need a gimme here. Fusion has been just around the corner for my entire life. I have always hoped, but it has always squashed that hope. Maybe, just maybe, with my notable skiils at piss-poor-prognostication I can effect he outcome and there might be something there this year
Chances = 99% that anything fusion related this year is going to head to the subsidy dumpster where all the rest of the work thus far has ended up. Prediction #8Stock Market Takes a Crap28,538. do you really think that this is going to last?
Even worse, what happens if it continues?
Look, there doesn't appear to be any "there" there. The most recent runup, in my honest opinion is all the rise in stock prices is directly related to Powell's injection of half a trillion bucks into the bond market the past couple of weeks. I realize that I am a naif regarding the vagaries of the market, but things really don't seem to make any sense except to an economist, who pull things out of their ass on a routine basis and discard and disavow the theories that got us here.
Chances are by this time next year:
- 85% chance of DJIA @ >/=25,000
- 60% chance of DJIA @ >/=22,000
- 40% chance of DJIA @ >/=18,000
- 20% chance of DJIA @ >/=14,000
Prediction #9
Australia and Greta get busyLook everyone who knows me, know that I read "The Limits to Growth" my freshman year in the oh-so-long ago.
It still is the most accurate prediction concerning our current predicament available. The trouble is that us Boomers rejected the unpleasantness and stoicism required and went instead for the party. Well, you have to pay for parties.
I think that what is happening down in Australia right at this very moment my see the beginning of a turn toward responsibility. Now the boomers are going to resist, but fuck them (us). I think that what will make the Western world turn toward the beginning of a new paradigm will be that cute animals (e.g. Koalas and Kangaroos) and white people are being hurt. We can't seem to work up the same level of sympathy for the "cullered" folks who have been suffering for decades (remember Katrina).
Chances = Another hard one to pin down. It is just a feeling. I can't figure a way to quantitate.
Prediction #10Us Proles Refuse to Wise upTrumpy and Boris and Putin all have one thing in common. The recognize that the non-elite have more votes than the elites. They pander to the low-bred scum such as yours truly and point out the uncomfortable fact that the elite couldn't care less about what the non-elite think. We are run in pretty much the same manner as a suburban high school, with the cool-kids spending a minimum of time on dorks or the nerds or the parking lot crowd. Well, what is referred to as "populism" and is so sneered at by the elites is that someone has had the temerity to actually speak to the desires of the non-elite. Now granted, the plans being spewed aren't better than the scornful disrespect of the elite, but at least someone is speaking to them.
Class War is Coming. Choose Your Sides.
Chances = Just very goodThat's it. I give these the same chance of being right as my predictions in the past. From here, I am going to cast the tarot cards and see what comes up. I'll report on that tomorrow.