Winter Foliage

[degringolade]

 
Winter Foliage

 

---

 

As I noted yesterday and I have stated in the past, I am trying to figure out what level of confidence I can place upon the various means used in the attempt to predict what is comin’ around the bend.  I publish here because the question doesn’t seem to be that odd in this environment and I certainly don’t want to deal with a bunch of screechy materialists who think this sort of question should not even be asked in polite company.

I think that there is a correlation between the rhythm of the world made evident to the likes of you and I and the results derived from the differing flavors of augury.  Oh don’t get me wrong, it isn't a strong correlation (>0.75) but I think that it runs in the 0.50-0.60 range depending on who is looking at it.

You have to be careful with this kind of shit.  If you want to piss off a particular flavor of “scientist” all you have to do is say the magic formula “correlation is not causation” and then stand back and watch the fur fly.  

I have not at all given up the idea that this sort of thing has a pretty big component of wanting to map a set of results onto my preconceived model of the world.  Even worse, I feel that this lack of strong correlation will be a major component in the improbable case that I will come to some kind of understanding.  But WTF, I am not hurting anyone and trying to sort this kinda thing out is part of the great game.