degringolade

One of my two "Rock Gardens" in front of my apartment

One of my favorite parts about Dreamwidth is its relative obscurity. A small part of me wants to write pieces where people gasp and call me a super-intelligent prophet. But I know full well that my writing is built around the prejudices of a retired man who isn’t arrogant enough to think that he has the answers and still needs a place to express himself in his efforts to work out incorrect solutions to unsolvable problems.

My thoughts on AI are my own and while I think that I have a pretty good handle on the way that things will be heading, I realize that my chances of giving a clear picture of the future is at best a bit of vanity on my part with a greater chance of being incorrect than actually getting the problem. But as that kind of thing is normal for me (and I would guess most people) this place is as good a place to ramble on as I could hope for.

I am tempted to reread Maria Doria Russell’s novel “the Sparrow”. It isn’t exactly an uplifting book, but damn me if it isn’t well written. Again, I would caution you to not read the whole wikipedia article if you are planning to take my advice and read the book. The folks who edit wikipedia pages really do like giving out spoilers. But one of the main plot points is someone whose job could not be replaced by an AI went out and fucked things up in a very human way.

So, after that side trip, I need to get back to the point of this particular post, discussion of the AI or LLM or Skynet craze that is sweeping the internet and conversations. The real purpose of the phenomenon is to replace the 85% (that is my S.W.A.G. Scientific Wild Ass Guess) of jobs that just require an entity following a set of rules to accomplish. That really does encompass quite a swath of the working population.

But truthfully, AI would not be all that god-awful if the economy didn’t need a way to employ the large number of dronish people who have no real skills other than taking tests and listening to lectures. I tend to think that this particular demographic encompasses around 42.5% of jobs out there currently being performed in meatspace. There are rule-following jobs that probably can’t be replaced adequately by LLM’s but that doesn’t mean they won’t try.

But let's sit down and think about the actual pruning process that will probably happen as the LLM’s start replacing the drones. Things will be hunky dory for a little while as the purges begin, but as they start getting traction and the drones can’t find a job with the same level of compensation and prestige, there will come quite a bit of anger. What I see happening is those with less seniority will be culled first and the upper level non-productives will start trying to flex the seniority card.

What will happen is that a whole bunch of these dronish types will be out of jobs and will start causing trouble and that is where things will get interesting. Most of them won’t want to actually go to work in some kind of productive activity, they have been told they are special for too long now (and they have the participation trophies to prove it!) and they will not work below their perceived station.

Could be wrong here, but the next twenty years or so look dicey to me. The best way to watch the show is from the cheap seats in the back of the theatre, eating the candy and drinking some juice that you smuggled in under your coat. Make certain you are close to the exit though.