Space Force Musings

Modernismo / Tarsila do Amaral/ An Angler

I started writing this as a comment for a post over at the Colonel’s place.  But then I started to feel constrained by the comment box so I pulled it over here to be able to work on it using a word processor.  

I have to agree with TTG on this one.  I also agree that the USSF will be a quasi independent command as are the Marines.  But I think that independence will be eroded in a very peculiar way.

I think that there will be significant differences from the Navy/Marine analogy.  If anything the control of near space will be more important strategically than the current air assets.  It is my honest feeling that current technology air assets will become progressively more marginalized over the next couple of decades.  

In my mind, the Air Force is the most moribund and least essential service in the world we are going into.  I suppose that this will be an unpopular opinion in this particular venue, but I really don’t see any way that the US can maintain its current status as global hegemon.  I can’t foresee a mission such as the Air Force mission (currently structured that will allow the needs for “power projection) lasting a long time in the brave new world we are getting ready for.

So, assuming as I do we will start disentangling ourselves from the forward bases around the world (do you really think that we will have the money to maintain them?) we will need enhanced snooping and abilities to intervene remotely.  I think that the Space Force stood up just for this sort of thing.  

Like it or not, the Air Force’s (and for that matter, the Navy’s) kit is just too expensive as it stands.  But the power structure in the Pentagon is currently weighted heavily toward manned aviation in the older services and large contracts and Board Positions for the Cognoscenti.   I don’t think that the Space Force will make that mistake. 

Really, spend some time and ponder it.  The Space Force is a way to break the current military penchant for expensive weapons that really don’t work all that well and that the opponents seem to have a solid means of defeating.

I think that the Space Force will end up being the tail that wags the dog of the senior services.  To the best of my limited powers of observation, the war planning is currently centered still around big, vulnerable assets (I’m talking to you USS Ronald Reagan) and lightweight bomb carrying sports cars that require tankers to give them the range and dwell needed.  As that changes with the retirement of the current command and the decrease in purchasing power available to the new command, I think that the relative weight of command will shift inexorably toward the Space Force.

I have a sneaking hunch that Elon Musk and SpaceX might become more and more important and integrated to the Space Force over the coming years.  I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if a goodly portion of the strategic assets that he currently holds is “nationalized” in a subtle backdoor manner.